The Second Taiwan West Pacific Global Forecast System Planning Workshop

臺灣與西北太平洋氣候預測全球模式發展第二次規劃研討會

中央氣象局310會議室

CWB, Taipei, Taiwan, May 7-8, 2014

AGENDA

May 7, Wednesday

Opening

09:00-09:05

Tien-Chiang Yeh

Deputy Director-General,CWB

Welcome Remarks

09:05-09:20

Mong-Ming Lu

Chief Researcher, CWB

Brief review the 1st TWPGFS Workshop /

Objective of the 2nd TWPGFS Workshop /

Invitee (Panel) intro, /Logistic

09:20-09:30

Group Photo

Section 1: CWB Global Model Development and Application

 Chairperson: Ming-Dean Cheng  Director, Weather Forecast Center (WFC), CWB

09:30-09:50

Mark Cheng

Director, R&D Center, CWB

CWB Mission Operation and Development

09:50-10:10

Chin-Tzu Fong

Deputy Director,Information Center, CWB

CWB NWP Overview

10:10-10:30

Jen-Her Chen

Senior Meteorologist, Computer Center, CWB

CWB Global Forecast System

10:30-10:50

Meng-Shih Chen

Chief, Long-range Forecast Section, WFC, CWB

CWB Operational Long-range Weather Forecasts

10:50-11:10

Jhy-Wen Hwu

Associate Researcher,R&D Center, CWB

CWB Monthly and Seasonal Climate Forecast Systems - overview

11:10-11:30

Ching-Teng Lee

Project Researcher,R&D Center, CWB

CWB Monthly and Seasonal Climate Forecast Systems - evaluation

11:30-11:50

Mong-Ming Lu

Chief Researcher,R&D Center, CWB

CWB Monthly and Seasonal Climate Forecasts - sources of predictability

11:50-13:30

Lunch Break

Section 2: Climate Model and Prediction Researches

Chairperson:Huang-Hsiung Hsu Research Fellow, Research Center for Environmental Center, Academia Sinica

13:30-14:10

Ming Cai

Professor, Florida State University

Warm Air Mass Transport into Polar Region and Cold Air Outbreaks in Mid-latitudes in Winter

14:10-14:40

Loren Chang

Assistant Professor, National Central University

Introduction to the Middle Atmosphere and the Role of Vertical Coupling

14:40-15:10

Pay-Liam Lin

Professor, National Central University

The CWB Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model developed at NCU

15:10-15:20

Break

15:20-15:50

Li-Huan Hsu

Project Assistant Researcher,

Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute

The estimation of reservoir inflow with seasonal precipitation forecast by Model for Prediction Across Scale (MPAS)

15:50-16:20

Shu-Chih Yang

Associate Professor, National Central University

EHTW for predicting ENSO

16:20-16:50

Chih-Hua Tsou

Professor, National Taiwan Normal University

Intraseasonal Oscillation and Tropical Storms Activity in High resolution AGCMs and WRF 30-km Regional Climate Model

16:50-17:20

Hsiao-Chung Tsai

Postdoctoral Research Associate, Naval Postgraduate School USA

Beyond Two-week Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Events: Experiences from the ECMWF 32-day and 7-month Ensemble Predictions

17:20-17:50

Judy W.-R. Huang

Assistant Professor, National Taiwan Normal University

Application of a RegCM3 to weather/climate change in Southeast Asia

17:50

End of Day-1 Sessions

 

May 8, Thursday

 

Section 2: Climate Model and Prediction Researches

Chairperson: Chung-Hsiung Sui  Professor, Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University

09:00-09:40

Huang-Hsiung Hsu

Research Fellow, Research Center for Environmental Center, Academia Sinica

Interannual Variability in seasonal forecast models and CMIP3/5 models

 

09:40-10:10

Bohua Huang

Research Scientist

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA)

CFSv2 Research at COLA: Understanding the effect of air-sea coupling in Asian-Pacific monsoon prediction and improving sea ice simulation for climate study

 

10:10-10:40

Henry Juang

Environmental Modeling Center

NCEP/NOAA

Some NCEP GFS Dynamics Experiments and Current Developments

 

10:40-10:50

Break

 

Section 3: NOAA’s Multi-Model Ensemble Prediction and Verification

Chair: Cheng-Ta Chen  Professor, National Taiwan Normal University

 

10:50-11:30

Jin Huang

Director, Climate Test Bed/NOAA

CTB Overview and NCEP CFSv3 development plan

 

11:30-12:30

Benjamin Kirtman,

Professor, RSMAS/MPO, University of Miami

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Prediction Science Results

 

12:30-14:00

Lunch Break

 

14:00-14:30

Kathy Pegion,

Research Scientist, Physical Sciences Division, ESRL/NOAA

Towards Subseasonal Prediction with the NMME

 

14:30-15:00

Emily Becker

Research Scientist,

CPC/NCEP/NOAA

NMME production, output, and data access

 

15:00-15:20

Meng-Shih Chen

Chief, Long-range Weather Forecast Section, WFC, CWB

NMME product usage experience at CWB

 

15:20-15:30

Break

Section 4: CWB Global Forecast Strategic Plan 2015-2020

Chair: Mark Cheng  Director, Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau

 

15:30-15:45

Mong-Ming Lu

Chief Researcher, CWB

Review the recommendations of 1st TWPGFS Workshop and report how they are incorporated into the draft of CWB Global Forecast Strategic Plan

 

15:45-17:30

Round Table Discussion - How ready is CWB for joining an international MME project?

Goal - put the itemized development tasks in CWB Global Forecast Strategic Plan

Issues:

- What re-forecast data sets are available?

  * Data archive

  * Computing system

  * Data I/O and Format

  * Data transfer/communication

- How reliable is CWB global forecast system?

  * Forecast model climatology evaluation

  * Forecast skill evaluation

- How did CWB apply the global products to local forecast?

- Two-tier vs. atmosphere-ocean coupled forecast system

17:30

Workshop closing